Unofficial Irish election results point to some challenges for bigwigs

Unofficial vote counts at counting centers for Ireland’s general election indicate the possibility of more breakthroughs and challenges for some senior officials after an exit poll put the three main parties almost level.

The tallies, carried out by party activists and volunteers in the form of boxes opened at 9 a.m., provide a more localized view of the potential outcome than Friday night’s exit poll.

According to the Ipsos B&A Exit Poll, commissioned by RTE, The Irish Times, TG4, the largest opposition party Sinn Féin received 21.1% of first preference votes, slightly ahead of current coalition partners Fine Gael and Fianna Fail with 21% and 19. 5% accordingly. and Trinity College Dublin.

This means ballots will have to be counted several times, a task that could take several days.

Inconclusive early data has shifted the focus of speculation to the complex arithmetic of government formation, with several of the country’s smaller parties and a host of independent candidates potentially vying for a seat in government.

The first vote counts, which could potentially lead to the election of new members of Parliament, known in Ireland as TDs, are expected later on Saturday.

The count points to potential trouble for Fianna Fail in Wicklow, where the party’s only candidate in the constituency, Health Secretary Stephen Donnelly, is believed to face a fight at risk of losing his seat.

Green leader Roderick O’Gorman, who is the head of the junior partner in the outgoing coalition, is also at risk. He had 7% of the vote in the informal poll, with more than half the boxes already counted by midday.

Last spring, a non-jury Special Criminal Court found Hutch not guilty of the murder of David Byrne, one of the first deadly attacks in the feud between the Hutch and Kinahan gangs.

Byrne, 33, died after being shot six times during a crowded boxing weigh-in at the Regency Hotel in February 2016.

A Special Criminal Court judge described Hutch, 61, as the patriarchal head of the Hutch crime organization and said he had engaged in “serious criminal conduct”.

The constituency will be closely watched as other contenders wait to see whether transfers from eliminated candidates could ultimately eliminate it from the fray.

Initially, it seemed unlikely that only one smaller party would be needed to act as kingmaker and secure a majority.

The leaders of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have consistently ruled out the possibility of entering into a coalition with Sinn Féin, citing significant differences on political issues.

Thus, the opposition party faces a much more difficult path to forming a government.

However, long-standing and supposedly insurmountable political divisions have faded as recently as 2020, when the general election also produced an inconclusive result.

Then Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, two parties formed from opposing sides of the Irish Civil War in the 1920s, agreed to abandon nearly a century of animosity and share power in favor of the outgoing coalition, after similar pledges against forming coalitions were made before the final results.

In this election, Sinn Féin won the popular vote, but the failure to field enough candidates meant that it did not win enough paper seats to give it a realistic chance of forming a government.

A key factor in determining the final outcome of any election in Ireland is the transfer of votes based on voter preferences, which is a key part of PR-STV.

It is through this system that candidates can still claim a seat after insufficient votes are cast after the first count.

More than 3.6 million people were registered to vote in the election to choose their representatives in 43 constituencies, in a campaign that focused on the country’s housing crisis, the response to a surge in immigration and the economic management of the cost of living. and potential future trade shocks.

There are a total of 174 seats to be filled in the country’s parliament, more than ever before.

With House Speaker Sinn Comhairle returning automatically, 173 seats will be filled during the counting process.