Unofficial Irish election results point to some challenges for bigwigs

Unofficial vote counts at counting centers for Ireland’s general election indicate the possibility of more breakthroughs and challenges for some senior officials after an exit poll put the three main parties almost level.

The tallies, carried out by party activists and volunteers in the form of boxes opened at 9 a.m., provide a more localized view of the potential outcome than Friday night’s exit poll.

Now that the boxes are open, the votes must first be sorted before the counting officially begins. This process can take several days due to Ireland’s complex single transferable vote (PR-STV) system of proportional representation, where candidates are ranked by preference.

This means ballots will have to be counted several times, a task that could take several days.

The first vote counts, which could potentially lead to the election of new members of Parliament, known in Ireland as TDs, are expected later on Saturday.

Most of the major party leaders, including Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris, Deputy Prime Minister and Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin, and Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald look set to be re-elected.

However, Greens leader Roderick O’Gorman, who is the head of the outgoing coalition’s junior partner, is fighting for his seat.

This would be a repeat of history, given that the last time the Greens left the coalition, the party lost all six of its TDs in 2011.

O’Gorman, the outgoing integration minister, said on Saturday: “Clearly the Green Party has not had its best day.”

Catherine Martin, the former deputy leader of the Green Party and outgoing media minister, is also at risk of not being re-elected.

The count points to potential trouble for Fianna Fail in Wicklow, where the party’s only candidate in the constituency, Health Secretary Stephen Donnelly, is believed to face a fight at risk of losing his seat.

Meanwhile, significant attention is being paid to independent candidate Gerard Hatch, who is in fourth place in the four-seat Dublin Central constituency after unofficial vote counts there were completed.

Byrne, 33, died after being shot six times during a crowded boxing weigh-in at the Regency Hotel in February 2016.

A Special Criminal Court judge described Hutch, 61, as the patriarchal head of the Hutch crime organization and said he had engaged in “serious criminal conduct”.

The constituency will be closely watched as other contenders wait to see whether transfers from eliminated candidates could ultimately eliminate it from the fray.

In the Louth constituency, the widely criticized election of John McGahon does not appear to have paid off for Fine Gael.

The Social Democrats have a great chance of becoming the largest of the smallest parties. Leader Holly Cairns announced the birth of her daughter on polling day.

Elsewhere, the Labor Party and Sinn Féin are considering the potential benefits.

Despite the apparent rise of the Social Democrats, it initially seemed unlikely that only one smaller party would be needed to act as a kingmaker and secure a majority.

It highlighted the possibility that a coalition of four parties or using independent candidates could potentially be formed, which some say is a recipe for unstable governance.

The leaders of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have consistently ruled out the possibility of entering into a coalition with Sinn Féin, citing significant differences on political issues.

However, long-standing and supposedly insurmountable political divisions have faded as recently as 2020, when the general election also produced an inconclusive result.

Then Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, two parties formed from opposing sides of the Irish Civil War in the 1920s, agreed to abandon nearly a century of animosity and share power in favor of the outgoing coalition, after similar pledges against forming coalitions were made before the final results.

In this election, Sinn Féin won the popular vote, but the failure to field enough candidates meant that it did not win enough paper seats to give it a realistic chance of forming a government.

Sinn Féin’s director of elections said on Saturday that a new Fine Gael and Fianna Fail government would be a “nightmare scenario”.

Matt Carty told RTE: “We will try to do everything in our power to create a government that does not include Fianna Fail and Fine Gael.”

Before voting began, Fianna Fail deputy leader Jack Chambers said the race remained “too close to call”.

Asked if there were now differences between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, Mr Chambers told RTE radio that the parties worked well together in government, but added: “There were very clear differences in policy (during the campaign).”

A key factor in determining the final outcome of any election in Ireland is the transfer of votes based on voter preferences, which is a key part of PR-STV.

It is through this system that candidates can still claim a seat after insufficient votes are cast after the first count.

More than 3.6 million people were registered to vote in the election to choose their representatives in 43 constituencies, in a campaign that focused on the country’s housing crisis, the response to a surge in immigration and the economic management of the cost of living. and potential future trade shocks.

There are a total of 174 seats to be filled in the country’s parliament, more than ever before.

With House Speaker Sinn Comhairle returning automatically, 173 seats will be filled during the counting process.