The Dodgers’ signing of Blake Snell could cause their hated rival to make a terrible mistake.

As if there were any doubts Los Angeles Dodgers did the first large splash offseason, signing Blake Snell to a massive five-year contract. Snell joins Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow, as well as several others, in what may be the best and deepest rotation in all of baseball. not to mention the NL West. The defending World Series champions have gotten much better.

The Dodgers not only managed to sign one of the best pitchers, but also stole him from the team he played for last season. San Francisco Giants. The Giants still have Logan Webb and a couple of intriguing players in the rotation, but for them to be better than the 80-82 team they were last season, replacing Snell is at least a must.

Luckily for Giants fans, the team is reportedlysignificant interestAccording to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, the best starting pitcher on the open market is Corbin Burns. While it sounds good on paper, signing Burns could be a terrible mistake.

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Since becoming a full-time starting pitcher midway through the shortened 2020 campaign, Burns has become one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. During that time, he posted an ERA below 3.00, made four All-Star teams, and even won the Cy Young Award back in 2021. He also had amazing durability, something Snell can’t match.

As promising as Burns looks on paper, there are a few glaring red flags.

First, Burns, given the fact that he is almost two full years younger than Snell, will receive more years in his contract, which is always a little concerning for a pitcher.

Second, while Burns remains elite, some numbers indicate he’s moving in the wrong direction. For example, his strikeout rate has declined in each of the last five seasons. In 2020, the rate was 36.7 percent, but last season it was just 23.1 percent. He entered the rating 51st percentile On the other hand, Snell’s 34.7 percent strikeout percentage last season was a career best.

Not only did Burns see a rapid decline in his strikeout rate, but opponents were swinging less and missing his pitches less. Burns’ velocity on his best pitch—his cutter—actually increased slightly last season, but he still hit just 19 percent on it, a career-low, according to Baseball Savant. His best pitch, his curveball, had a rate of 37.8%. While that’s a solid number for some, it was his lowest total on this field since 2018, his rookie season. Burns was a pitcher that year and threw that pitch just 6.8 percent of the time.

For now, the results are still there, but his stuff doesn’t seem to be as dominant as it used to be. Snell’s departure, especially to the Dodgers, certainly puts pressure on Buster Posey and company to make some moves, but pivoting to Burns after missing out on Snell could prove to be a make-or-break mistake by the time the huge contract Burns will finally expire. There’s reason to believe Burns will be fine over the next few years, but given the way things are going for him, this contract could age incredibly poorly.