Anthony Albanese is preparing a reshuffle to replace Bill Shorten ahead of the 2025 election

Either scenario would mean Victoria’s influence in cabinet would be reduced with Shorten’s departure, but Labor would hope to win seats in Queensland and hold on to the seats it won in Western Australia in 2022.

Promoting a talented new minister from Queensland or WA is seen domestically as tactically astute and unlikely to cause a fuss, while promoting another NSW MP to the cabinet at Victoria’s expense is likely to get noses out of whack.

Shorten’s combined NDIS and public services portfolios were given to him when Labor won government as he was an early champion of the disability insurance scheme. He was also a leader in setting up and supporting the royal commission into robo-debt, making public services natural candidates.

Government sources said the Prime Minister would consider the changes during the short Christmas break.

Dutton, like Albanese, is expected to return to work by early January as both men prepare for what are widely expected to be close elections in which a hung parliament is seen as a distinct possibility given the size of the bench.

Both leaders are also planning at this stage to make major policy announcements in the second half of January, with the Prime Minister penciled in for a speech at the National Press Club ahead of Australia Day and some members of both major parties expecting an election to be called. a few days later, although Albanese made it clear that he was leaning towards May.

Resolve Political Monitor’s most recent report, conducted for this title in early November, showed the opposition primary vote had risen one percentage point to 39 percent, while Labor remained steady at 30 percent. These primary votes will give any major party a slim majority at best in the next parliament.

While Dutton will feel the loss of Birmingham, a former finance, education, trade and tourism minister at various times under Scott Morrison and Malcolm Turnbull, the need to replace a foreign affairs official heading into a domestic campaign is less pressing.

While Liberal deputy leader Susan Ley and shadow cabinet ministers Jane Hume, James Paterson and Dan Tehan have been put forward as possible replacements for Birmingham, removing shadow ministers from domestic portfolios months before the election could disrupt the shadow spending review committee process. who is currently working on electoral politics.

Another option would be for Dutton to take over the portfolio as caretaker, or for former shadow cabinet minister Julian Leeser to be returned to the front bench, with former ambassador and foreign policy oddball Dave Sharma given the role of assistant.

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